Research
Working Papers
- Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Digital Receipts in the Ugandan Dairy Chain — with David Henning
- Supported by: J-PAL, the International Growth Centre (IGC), and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics
- Presented at: 2026 Development Economics Rookiefest, PacDev 2026, MWIEDC 2026, CSAE 2026, PSDRN Seminar Series 2025-2026, MAE 2026, World Bank–KDI School Development Impact Conference, AFE 2025, AAEA & WAEA 2025
- Coverage: World Bank’s Development Impact Blog, IGC Blog
Abstract: Using a randomized experiment with dairy cooperatives in western Uganda, we provide causal evidence that SMS-based digital receipts for daily milk deliveries improve accountability, product quality, and delivery frequency. In a context of weak monitoring and imperfect transaction information, these messages allow smallholder farmers to better observe the behavior of intermediaries in the supply chain. The intervention effects vary with the intensity of information frictions. Among farmers facing high information frictions (i.e., those relying on intermediaries to transport milk), the intervention increased the detection of discrepancies and encouraged switching away from dishonest intermediaries. Farmers in low-friction settings (those who deliver milk themselves) delivered more frequently; the likely mechanism is a behavioral nudge created by receiving messages both on days with deliveries and days without deliveries. We also find that the intervention increased milk quality for both self-deliverers and farmers using transporters. Overall, our results show that simple digital tools can reduce information asymmetries and strengthen accountability in smallholder supply chains.
Banking Amidst Conflict: How Violence Shapes Financial Inclusion in Mexico — with Xiaofei Wang
Abstract: We study how exposure to violence shapes the use of formal financial services in Mexico. Using administrative records on violent incidents, we train a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to generate out-of-sample, municipality-level forecasts of violence and define violence shocks as unexpected deviations of realized violence from these predictions. We combine these shocks with nationwide administrative transaction data from the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) covering ATM and correspondent banking activity across all municipalities from 2014 to 2019. We find that unexpected spikes in violence reduce ATM transactions per capita by approximately 1.6 percent in the month of the shock and 1.3 percent the following month, with effects dissipating within two months. In contrast, we find no statistically significant response in correspondent banking activity at any horizon, with point estimates close to zero. This divergence indicates that violence primarily disrupts access to traditional ATM infrastructure rather than inducing broad financial disengagement, and suggests that correspondent banking can serve as a partial buffer against violence-induced disruptions.
Selected Research in Progress
- Digital Monitoring and Quality-Contingent Contracts: Aligning Incentives in the Ugandan Dairy Sector – with Taesoo Choi (Pilot phase)
- Supported by: PEDL and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics
- Presented at: PEDL IOM Workshop
Abstract: We study how information frictions and misaligned incentives generate inefficiencies in agricultural value chains, focusing on Uganda’s dairy sector. Smallholder farmers depend on transporters to collect and deliver their daily milk to cooperatives, but they have limited visibility over this process. Transporters observe how milk is handled between pickup and delivery, including any alterations, and they report delivered quantities while facing frequently changing prices that are settled through biweekly payments. These features make it difficult for farmers to monitor intermediary behavior. At the same time, a uniform pricing system that pays a single price for milk meeting a minimum quality standard weakens incentives for quality and creates opportunities for profitable milk dilution. To address these frictions, we evaluate a bundled digital intervention implemented through cooperatives that improves transparency, aligns incentives across farmers, transporters, and cooperatives, and reduces scope for opportunistic behavior.
Silent Transfers: Violence and Income Misreporting in Mexico (In progress)
- From Prayer to Progress: Religious Festivals and Development in Mexico (In progress)
Publications (Pre-Doctoral)
- Magaña Sáenz, P. (2015). Behavioral Economics and Nudges Applied to Pawnshops, Gaceta de Economía, 34, 96-126. (Original in Spanish)