Research

Job Market Paper

• Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Digital Receipts in the Ugandan Dairy Chain — with David Henning
  • Funded by: J-PAL, the International Growth Centre (IGC), and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics
  • Presented at: PacDev 2026 (scheduled), CSAE 2026 (scheduled), MAE 2026 (scheduled), World Bank–KDI School Development Impact Conference, AFE 2025, AAEA & WAEA 2025
  • Coverage: World Bank’s Development Impact Blog, IGC Blog

  • AEA RCT Registry

    Abstract: Using a randomized experiment with dairy cooperatives in western Uganda, we provide causal evidence that SMS-based digital receipts for daily milk deliveries improve accountability, product quality, and delivery frequency. In a context of weak monitoring and imperfect transaction information, these messages allow smallholder farmers to better observe the behavior of intermediaries in the supply chain. The intervention effects vary with the intensity of information frictions. Among farmers facing high information frictions (i.e., those relying on intermediaries to transport milk), the intervention increased the detection of discrepancies and encouraged switching away from dishonest intermediaries. Farmers in low-friction settings (those who deliver milk themselves) delivered more frequently; the likely mechanism is a behavioral nudge created by receiving messages both on days with deliveries and days without deliveries. We also find that the intervention increased milk quality for both self-deliverers and farmers using transporters. Overall, our results show that simple digital tools can reduce information asymmetries and strengthen accountability in smallholder supply chains.

Selected Research in Progress

• Digital Monitoring and Quality-Contingent Contracts: Aligning Incentives in the Ugandan Dairy Sector – with Taesoo Choi (Pilot phase)

  • Funded by: PEDL and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics

    Abstract: We study how information frictions and misaligned incentives generate inefficiencies in agricultural value chains, focusing on Uganda’s dairy sector. Smallholder farmers depend on transporters to collect and deliver their daily milk to cooperatives, but they have limited visibility over this process. Transporters observe how milk is handled between pickup and delivery, including any alterations, and they report delivered quantities while facing frequently changing prices that are settled through biweekly payments. These features make it difficult for farmers to monitor intermediary behavior. At the same time, a uniform pricing system that pays a single price for milk meeting a minimum quality standard weakens incentives for quality and creates opportunities for profitable milk dilution. To address these frictions, we evaluate a bundled digital intervention implemented through cooperatives that improves transparency, aligns incentives across farmers, transporters, and cooperatives, and reduces scope for opportunistic behavior.

• Banking Amidst Conflict: How Violence Shapes Financial Inclusion in Mexico – with Xiaofei Wang (Draft in progress)

  Abstract: We study how exposure to violence affects the use of formal financial services in Mexico. Using police reports and death records from the Ministry of Health, we construct municipality-level forecasts of expected violence from 2011 to 2020 using machine learning methods based on long short-term memory networks (LSTM). We use deviations from these forecasts, defined as months with unexpectedly high violence, as measures of unanticipated public safety shocks. We combine this approach with nationwide administrative transaction data from the National Banking and Securities Commission covering all municipalities over the same period. We focus on the extensive margin of financial service use and document a lagged behavioral response to violence. Preliminary findings indicate that unexpected spikes in violence lead to a reduction in formal financial service usage in the month of exposure and the subsequent month. This decline is primarily driven by substitution away from in-branch banking toward out-of-branch options, particularly banking correspondents. These patterns suggest that insecurity reshapes how individuals access formal financial services. The results highlight how localized insecurity raises transaction costs and alters participation in formal financial markets over a short horizon. By isolating unanticipated violence shocks and tracing their effects across financial access channels, this study provides evidence on the indirect costs of insecurity for financial intermediation and contributes to understanding financial inclusion in high-risk environments.

• Silent Transfers: Violence and Income Reporting in Mexico (In progress)

• From Prayer to Progress: Religious Festivals and Development in Mexico (In progress)

Publications (Pre-Doctoral)

• Magaña Sáenz, P. (2015). Behavioral Economics and Nudges Applied to Pawnshops, Gaceta de Economía, 34, 96-126. (Original in Spanish)