Research
Job Market Paper
- Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Digital Receipts in the Ugandan Dairy Chain — with David Henning
- Supported by: J-PAL, the International Growth Centre (IGC), and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics
- Presented at: MWIEDC 2026 (scheduled), CSAE 2026 (scheduled), PSDRN Seminar Series 2025-2026 (scheduled), PacDev 2026, MAE 2026, World Bank–KDI School Development Impact Conference, AFE 2025, AAEA & WAEA 2025
- Coverage: World Bank’s Development Impact Blog, IGC Blog
Abstract: Using a randomized experiment with dairy cooperatives in western Uganda, we provide causal evidence that SMS-based digital receipts for daily milk deliveries improve accountability, product quality, and delivery frequency. In a context of weak monitoring and imperfect transaction information, these messages allow smallholder farmers to better observe the behavior of intermediaries in the supply chain. The intervention effects vary with the intensity of information frictions. Among farmers facing high information frictions (i.e., those relying on intermediaries to transport milk), the intervention increased the detection of discrepancies and encouraged switching away from dishonest intermediaries. Farmers in low-friction settings (those who deliver milk themselves) delivered more frequently; the likely mechanism is a behavioral nudge created by receiving messages both on days with deliveries and days without deliveries. We also find that the intervention increased milk quality for both self-deliverers and farmers using transporters. Overall, our results show that simple digital tools can reduce information asymmetries and strengthen accountability in smallholder supply chains.
Selected Research in Progress
- Digital Monitoring and Quality-Contingent Contracts: Aligning Incentives in the Ugandan Dairy Sector – with Taesoo Choi (Pilot phase)
Supported by: PEDL and the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics
Abstract: We study how information frictions and misaligned incentives generate inefficiencies in agricultural value chains, focusing on Uganda’s dairy sector. Smallholder farmers depend on transporters to collect and deliver their daily milk to cooperatives, but they have limited visibility over this process. Transporters observe how milk is handled between pickup and delivery, including any alterations, and they report delivered quantities while facing frequently changing prices that are settled through biweekly payments. These features make it difficult for farmers to monitor intermediary behavior. At the same time, a uniform pricing system that pays a single price for milk meeting a minimum quality standard weakens incentives for quality and creates opportunities for profitable milk dilution. To address these frictions, we evaluate a bundled digital intervention implemented through cooperatives that improves transparency, aligns incentives across farmers, transporters, and cooperatives, and reduces scope for opportunistic behavior.
Banking Amidst Conflict: How Violence Shapes Financial Inclusion in Mexico – with Xiaofei Wang (Draft in progress)
Abstract: We study how exposure to violence shapes the use of formal financial services in Mexico. Using administrative records on violent incidents, we construct out-of-sample predictions and define public safety shocks as deviations from predicted levels. We combine these shocks with nationwide administrative transaction data from the National Banking and Securities Commission covering ATM and non-bank correspondent activity in all municipalities. We find that unexpected spikes in violence reduce ATM transaction intensity relative to municipalities’ historical norms, with effects concentrated in the immediate aftermath of the shock. The decline is stronger in transactions per ATM than per capita, indicating a short-run reduction in the intensity of use of existing financial infrastructure. In contrast, we find no robust evidence of substitution toward non-bank correspondents. While transactions at non-bank correspondents show small and short-lived increases in levels and per capita terms, proportional effects are modest. Taken together, the results suggest that violence does not lead to broad financial disengagement. Instead, it temporarily depresses financial activity, consistent with short-run mobility frictions and risk-avoidance behavior. These findings highlight how insecurity disrupts the intensity of financial access without substantially altering overall engagement.
Silent Transfers: Violence and Income Misreporting in Mexico (In progress)
- From Prayer to Progress: Religious Festivals and Development in Mexico (In progress)
Publications (Pre-Doctoral)
- Magaña Sáenz, P. (2015). Behavioral Economics and Nudges Applied to Pawnshops, Gaceta de Economía, 34, 96-126. (Original in Spanish)